The Assumption Crucible Method™.

The Assumption Crucible Method™.

A structured process for finding the assumptions underneath a major strategic commitment before a founder makes it.

A structured process for finding the assumptions underneath a major strategic commitment before a founder makes it.

Grounded in decision science and cognitive bias research. Not because founders are irrational but because they are systematically biased toward the assumptions that carried them this far. The beliefs that survived the pitch deck feel like facts inside the company. They are not facts until they have survived contact with regulated market buyers, enterprise procurement, and institutional investors.

Grounded in decision science and cognitive bias research. Not because founders are irrational but because they are systematically biased toward the assumptions that carried them this far. The beliefs that survived the pitch deck feel like facts inside the company. They are not facts until they have survived contact with regulated market buyers, enterprise procurement, and institutional investors.

Why existing approaches fall short.

Why existing approaches fall short.

Internal strategy sessions surface the assumptions everyone already agrees on. Advisors work from the information you give them. Investors find the gaps after you have committed the runway. None of these is designed to find the assumptions you do not know you are making.

Internal strategy sessions surface the assumptions everyone already agrees on. Advisors work from the information you give them. Investors find the gaps after you have committed the runway. None of these is designed to find the assumptions you do not know you are making.

The cognitive bias mechanism.

The cognitive bias mechanism.

Confirmation bias makes you seek evidence that validates what you already believe. Every customer conversation that goes well reinforces the assumptions underneath it. The conversations that would prove you wrong never get scheduled because you are too busy running the ones that confirm what you already think.


Commitment bias makes you double down on decisions already made rather than question the assumptions underneath them. The further along you are, the harder it becomes to see which beliefs are load-bearing and which are comfortable fictions.


Both biases are stronger, not weaker, in founders who are intelligent, experienced, and moving fast. The Assumption Crucible Method™ is specifically designed to surface what both biases hide.

Confirmation bias makes you seek evidence that validates what you already believe. Every customer conversation that goes well reinforces the assumptions underneath it. The conversations that would prove you wrong never get scheduled because you are too busy running the ones that confirm what you already think.


Commitment bias makes you double down on decisions already made rather than question the assumptions underneath them. The further along you are, the harder it becomes to see which beliefs are load-bearing and which are comfortable fictions.


Both biases are stronger, not weaker, in founders who are intelligent, experienced, and moving fast. The Assumption Crucible Method™ is specifically designed to surface what both biases hide.

Two engagements.

Two engagements.

The Assumption Crucible™ Audit.

£4,750.

01

Qualification call.

Thirty minutes. David asks a structured set of questions about your current situation, your burn rate, your runway, and the commitment you are facing. If the fit is right the call ends with a clear next step.

02

Session one.

Ninety minutes. Maps the decision you are about to make and surfaces every assumption underneath it across all twelve Assumption Debt™ categories.

03

Session two.

Ninety minutes. Ranks assumptions by how load-bearing they are and how tested they are. Prioritises which to address before your trigger event and which to get ahead of narratively.

04

Written Assumption Debt™ map.

Delivered within 24 hours of session two. Priority one assumptions with specific paydown actions. Priority two assumptions with narrative preparation. The foundational assumption named explicitly.

The Assumption Crucible™ Engagement.

£15,000.

01

Week one.

Frames the decision and maps every assumption underneath it. A testing plan is agreed before week two begins.

02

Week two.

Defines what good evidence looks like for each assumption. Success criteria set so results cannot be argued with.

03

Weeks three and four.

Ten to fifteen stakeholder conversations with the people who would prove your assumptions wrong. Buyers. Procurement contacts. Compliance leads. Investors. Competitors’ customers.

04

Decision memo.

A written recommendation on whether the ground is solid before you commit the runway. Not a slide deck. A decision.

What this demands from you.

What this demands from you.

Full access to your thinking, not the polished version. Real conversations with your team, your customers, and your prospects, not the version you tell investors. A genuine willingness to change your mind if the evidence points that way. The Assumption Crucible Method™ only works when both sides are fully in.

Full access to your thinking, not the polished version. Real conversations with your team, your customers, and your prospects, not the version you tell investors. A genuine willingness to change your mind if the evidence points that way. The Assumption Crucible Method™ only works when both sides are fully in.

What this is not.

What this is not.

Not consultancy. You are not buying ongoing access to opinions.

Not coaching. You are not working on mindset or leadership.

Not advisory. You are not getting a board member who attends monthly calls.

Not consultancy. You are not buying ongoing access to opinions.

Not coaching. You are not working on mindset or leadership.

Not advisory. You are not getting a board member who attends monthly calls.

How is the Assumption Crucible Method™ different from a strategy review?

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How many stakeholder conversations happen in the full engagement?

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What is the deliverable at the end of the engagement?

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How long does the Audit take?

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Can I do the Audit without proceeding to the full engagement?

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What if I disagree with the findings?

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Start a qualification call